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What would have happened if Niemann had not defeated Carlsen at the Sinquefield Cup?

After 19-year-old American grandmaster Hans Niemann defeated Magnus Carlsen in the third round of the Sinquefield Cup 2022, the World Chess Champion decided to withdraw from the event. Rumors that Magnus Carlsen suspected Niemann was cheating started spreading over social medias and the topic of cheating in chess is the top news in mass media ever since Hans Niemann confessed he cheated in online random games in the emotional interview at the Sinquefield Cup, stating that he will not let chess.com, Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura to slander his reputation. Chess.com explained its decision to remove Hans Niemann from the platform and developed the investigation on the Carlsen – Niemann case. The results were presented in the 72-page report which says that Hans Niemann likely cheated in more than 100 online games in period from 2015-2020. Despite catching Hans red-handed, chess.com invited him to participate in the Chess.com Global Chess Championship, but took the invitation back after Niemann defeated Magnus Carlsen at the Sinquefield Cup 2022 who consequently withdrew from the tournament. But what would have happened if Hans Niemann had not defeated Magnus Carlsen at the Sinquefield Cup?

Photo from Sinquefield Cup 2022; Crystal Fuller/Saint Louis Chess Club

As GM Georg Meier writes, one possibility if Niemann had not beaten Carlsen in Saint Louis, is that there wouldn’t be Carlsen’s withdrawal, cheating allegations, chess.com would not take back the invitation for Hans to play in the Chess.com Global Chess Championship, Magnus would not refuse to play against Niemann in the Julius Baer Generation Cup, FIDE would not start the investigation… The list could get longer as it is not likely that cheating in chess would have been the top story in mass medias, and chess.com would maybe not publish the 72-page report on the Carlsen – Niemann case.


Geert van der Velde, the CEO of Chessable, has a similar take on the Carlsen – Niemann case with an important emphasis – the Niemann – Chess.com story has been going for 2,5 years without any consequences.


GM Eugene Perelshteyn who earlier defended and criticized Magnus on the Hans Niemann cheating accusations, seems to agree that Carlsen’s loss triggered the chess drama. He writes that he played a nearly perfect OTB game against Carlsen in 2017 IOM International: “Imagine if I didn’t make a mistake and won the game, only to get accused of cheating by the World Champ“.


And what do you think would have happened if Magnus Carlsen did not lose to Hans Niemann at the Sinquefield Cup?

The timetable of events related to the Carlsen – Niemann case:


5-Sep BREAKING: Magnus Carlsen withdraws from the Sinquefield Cup 2022
5-Sep Possible reasons of Magnus Carlsen’s withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022
5-Sep Hans Niemann was thoroughly checked before the fourth round of the Sinquefield Cup (VIDEO)
5-Sep Sinquefield Cup’s players and organizers react to Carlsen’s withdrawal from the tournament
5-Sep Hans Niemann R4 post-game interview: At least I got to beat Magnus Carlsen before he left
6-Sep Sinquefield Cup 2022 improves anti-cheating measures after Carlsen’s withdrawal
6-Sep Fabiano Caruana: Can’t wait to hear more about the Hans effect on The Magnus Effect
6-Sep Reactions to Magnus Carlsen’s withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022
6-Sep Niemann’s emotional confession R5 post-game interview: I cheated in random games on chess.com and this was the biggest mistake in my life
7-Sep Reactions to Hans Niemann’s interview
7-Sep Hans Niemann: I’d like to see what Nakamura has to say now
8-Sep Hans Niemann R6 post-game interview: The silence of my critics speaks for itself
8-Sep Elon Musk comments on accusations towards Hans Niemann
8-Sep Garry Kasparov about Carlsen’s withdrawal: It’s an act with no precedent in the past 50 years
9-Sep Chess.com explains its decision to remove Hans Niemann from the platform in the official statement
9-Sep Daniel Rensch about chess.com’s statement: This tweet speaks for itself
9-Sep Hikaru Nakamura reacts to Hans Niemann’s interview
9-Sep Susan Polgar about Niemann – Carlsen case: The professional reputation of many parties is at stake
9-Sep Garry Kasparov: Unless the chess world is to be dragged down into endless pathetic rumors, clear statements must be made
9-Sep Niemann keeps analyzing his game with MVL while getting checked with the anti-cheating device (VIDEO)
9-Sep Hans Niemann R7 post-game interview: It is absolutely ridiculous to play chess under these conditions
10-Sep Hikaru Nakamura and Daniel Naroditsky speak about cheating in chess
10-Sep Hans Niemann’s fans gather in front of the Saint Louis Chess Club
10-Sep Sinquefield Cup Chief Arbiter’s statement: We have no indication that any player has been playing unfairly in the Sinquefield Cup 2022
11-Sep New allegations within Niemann – Carlsen case: Hans Niemann performs much better with live DGT boards
11-Sep Nigel Davies, “If Carlsen does not speak soon, the FIDE Ethics Commission should act”
11-Sep Alexander Grischuk about Niemann – Carlsen case: Magnus freaked out for a reason
11-Sep Richard Rapport suggests a polygraph test to manage cheating in chess and protect players who are falsely accused
11-Sep Alexei Shirov: Hans Niemann’s last GM norm looks suspicious
12-Sep Hans Niemann after the end of the Sinquefield Cup 2022: It was a lot to handle and I wasn’t able to manage my nerves
13-Sep S.L. Narayanan: I believe FIDE has to take more stringent measures for both online as well as OTB
13-Sep Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen to meet at the Julius Baer Generation Cup
14-Sep Hans Niemann to be back at the Saint Louis Chess Club for the 2022 Fall Chess Classic
15-Sep Fabiano Caruana on Carlsen’s withdrawal: I do not think Niemann cheated in this tournament
16-Sep Leonard Barden for Guardian on Niemann – Carlsen case: It is time for FIDE to step in
16-Sep Stephen Colbert jokes about the latest accusations against Hans Niemann in his late night talk show
18-Sep Alejandro Ramirez shares his insights on Carlsen’s withdrawal: I don’t think Hans cheated
19-Sep Magnus Carlsen resignes against Hans Niemann in the second move
19-Sep Susan Polgar on Carlsen’s resignation against Niemann: Definitely a protest move!
19-Sep Hammer says Carlsen should be sanctioned in live Norwegian TV program
19-Sep Fair-Play specialist Kenneth Regan: Niemann played well, but not too well
19-Sep Levon Aronian: I believe Niemann hasn’t been the cleanest person when it comes to online chess
19-Sep Magnus Carlsen applauds Pragg for the fantastic game
19-Sep Reactions to Magnus Carlsen’s resignation
19-Sep Niemann’s and Carlsen’s facial expressions during their 2-move game
20-Sep Carlsen will not give any interviews during the tournament
20-Sep Anish Giri: we know about online cheating by multiple other chess players
20-Sep Nakamura on Carlsen – Nieman Julius Baer game
20-Sep Martin B. Justesen: Carlsen is handling the Chess.com merger like Elon Musk did with the purchase of Twitter
20-Sep Carlsen’s resignation is the top story in Norwegian newspapers
20-Sep Why was Hans Niemann invited to the Julius Baer Generation Cup?
20-Sep Naroditsky: I am pretty confident that Magnus believes Niemann has cheated over the board before Saint Louis
20-Sep The Carlsen – Niemann conflict is more recent than everyone thinks?
20-Sep What if Magnus Carlsen and Hans Niemann meet in the Julius Baer Generation Cup Knockout phase?
21-Sep Levon Aronian on 21-move loss to Niemann: Hans played very strange moves
21-Sep FIDE closely follows Carlsen – Niemann case, a statement to come
21-Sep Emil Sutovsky: FIDE is concerned about recent developments of Carlsen – Niemann case
21-Sep BREAKING! Magnus Carlsen: cheaters should not be taken lightly either online or OTB
21-Sep Niemann’s mentor whom Carlsen mentions in the interview was banned from chess.com for cheating?!
22-Sep Susan Polgar: Sadly, the performances of other young talents are overshadowed
22-Sep Anish Giri about the recent chess drama: It’s moving in circles a little bit
22-Sep Fabiano Caruana: I would take Regan’s analysis with a large grain of salt
22-Sep Magnus Carlsen: Some people were more supportive privately than publicly
23-Sep Ian Nepomniachtchi: I was unhappy to hear Hans Niemann will replace Rapport in Sinquefield Cup
23-Sep FIDE publishes the official statement on the Carlsen – Niemann case
24-Sep Top grandmasters take Carlsen’s side in the Carlsen – Niemann case?!
24-Sep Hans Niemann is innocent until proven guilty
25-Sep Susan Polgar: DON’T CHEAT! It is simply NOT worth it!
25-Sep Magnus Carlsen announces his statement(s) for the coming days: I want cheating in chess to be dealt with seriously
26-Sep Kenneth Regan for Al Jazeera: I was in daily communication with the Sinquefield Cup organizers
26-Sep BREAKING! Magnus Carlsen publishes the official statement: I believe that Niemann has cheated more
26-Sep Chris Bird – Chief Arbiter of the Sinquefield Cup 2022 reacts to Carlsen’s statement
26-Sep Nakamura on Carlsen’s statement: It seems to me that Carlsen thinks Hans was cheating in the game they played at the Sinquefield Cup
26-Sep Reactions to Magnus Carlsen’s official statement
26-Sep Is Carlsen’s statement the end, the beginning of the end, or only the end of the beginning? 
26-Sep Fabiano Caruana and Maurice Ashley comment on Carlsen’s statement (C-Squared podcast)
26-Sep GM Nigel Davies on Carlsen’s statement: This is a very clear accusation of cheating, but without actual evidence
27-Sep Susan Polgar suggests a lifetime ban for second cheating offense
27-Sep Ramesh RB: FIDE should have devised a good practical solution to the cheating problem years ago
27-Sep Anish Giri reveals moves of the “Beach Game” between Niemann and Carlsen
27-Sep GM Raymond Keene: Niemann could now raise stakes by consulting M’Learned Friends
27-Sep Sergey Karjakin on Carlsen’s statement: Niemann’s guilt has not been proven, but there is no smoke without fire
27-Sep The Carlsen – Niemann controversy is top news in mass media
28-Sep GM Daniel King: “It seems to have been forgotten that a 19-year-old has been thrown to the lions”
28-Sep Hikaru Nakamura comments on Yosha Iglesias’s “the most incriminating evidence against Hans Niemann”
28-Sep Motherboard reviews e-mails in which Maxim Dlugy confesses cheating on chess.com
29-Sep Eugene Perelshteyn defends and criticizes Carlsen on the Hans Niemann cheating accusations
29-Sep Garry Kasparov: Carlsen’s behavior was unacceptable
30-Sep FIDE’s Fair-Play Commission forms the investigatory panel for the Carlsen – Niemann controversy
1-Oct Ian Nepomniachtchi explains what could be considered evidence of cheating in chess
2-Oct Hikaru Nakamura on the recent Carlsen – Niemann case developments: I don’t see a happy ending to this
4-Oct The Wall Street Journal publishes chess.com’s findings on the Carlsen – Niemann case
4-Oct Hikaru Nakamura on chess.com’s findings about Hans Niemann: This is the big drama
4-Oct Reactions to chess.com’s findings about Hans Niemann
4-Oct Chess.com publishes 72-page report on Carlsen – Niemann case
5-Oct GM Noel Studer: It’s insane that chess.com knew Hans likely cheated over 100 times and would have let him play in CGC
5-Oct “The report speaks for itself” #TweetOftheDay
5-Oct Emil Sutovsky: Magnus didn’t follow FIDE’s procedures and may face some consequences
5-Oct Hans Niemann goes through strict anti-cheating control at the US Chess Championship
5-Oct Hans Niemann leaves the US Chess Championship studio after saying that chess speaks for itself (VIDEO)
6-Oct Tony Rich: We have to assume Hans Niemann is innocent until he is proven guilty